In 2025, it is tempting to equate “winning” with “more”: more keys, more destinations, more flags, more pipeline announcements. But the global travel rebound has entered a more complex phase where demand has broadly normalised, cost structures have reset upward, and guest expectations are fragmenting faster than traditional hotel formats can keep up. International tourism virtually recovered to 99% of pre-pandemic levels in 2024 (about 1.4 billion international tourists), effectively closing the recovery chapter and opening a new competitive era.

The winners from 2026 onward will not be the largest portfolios. They will be the most capital-efficient, concept-led, experience-driven platforms—the ones that turn every square foot into revenue and every touchpoint into differentiation.

The 2026 Reality: Growth Is Back, But the Easy Part Is Over

In many markets, performance is increasingly rate-led rather than volume-led, and that distinction matters. India is a clear example of the new cycle: 12.9% year-on-year RevPAR growth in Q2 2025, alongside 106 hotel signings totaling 13,398 keys, a signal of confidence, but also a sign that competitive intensity will rise as supply catches up.

At the same time, performance is becoming more uneven across geographies globally. STR/Tourism Economics’ 2025 outlook shows muted RevPAR growth in several mature regions, and CoStar/STR has highlighted forecast downgrades in the U.S. lodging outlook, an important reminder that cycle risk has returned.

Translation for owners and developers: if your model relies primarily on “adding keys” to create value, the market will eventually price you like a commodity.

Rule #1 (2026+): Capital Efficiency Beats Portfolio Size

Scale used to buy distribution, bargaining power, and operating leverage. Today, scale without efficiency can simply amplify underperformance.

Owners are increasingly underwriting projects against:

• Higher cost of capital

• Longer stabilisation horizons

• More volatile demand patterns (event spikes, weekend peaks, shoulder season softness)

• Persistent cost pressure (wages, utilities, compliance, insurance)

In India, sector-level operating fundamentals show the importance of disciplined revenue management and cost control: one FY2025 industry report cites all-India occupancy of 64.5%, ADR of INR 8,235, and RevPAR of INR 5,310 healthy, but not a license to overbuild.

The implication: the winning strategy is not “build bigger.” It is build smarter right-sized inventories, flexible space planning, and formats designed to outperform across multiple demand pools (business, leisure, MICE, extended stay, destination-led weekends).

Rule #2: Concept Strength Will Outperform Brand Dependence

Brands still matter, but the market is increasingly rewarding concept clarity more than brand presence. Guests are not searching for “a 200-key hotel” they are searching for a stay with meaning: design, community, wellness, food identity, local access, and programmability.

This shift is visible in how major operators are expanding: global chains are growing pipelines aggressively, but the most successful new openings tend to be those with clear positioning and differentiated experiences. Accor reported a pipeline of more than 241,000 rooms as of mid-2025, and Marriott continues to report record global pipeline levels, proof that supply is coming, and generic offerings will struggle.

What wins in 2026+

• A strong, ownable “reason to stay” beyond the room

• F&B that functions as a destination, not an amenity

• Wellness that is integrated (sleep, recovery, nature, routines), not a token spa

• Programming that creates return visits and local relevance

In other words: a hospitality product that behaves like a lifestyle platform.

Rule #3: Experience-Led Economics Will Replace Room-Led Economics

Rooms remain the core revenue engine—but they are no longer sufficient for durable differentiation or margin expansion. The next decade will be won by properties that treat the hotel as a multi-revenue ecosystem:

• Dining as a brand in itself

• Experiences as paid inventory (tastings, trails, culture, workshops)

• Retail, memberships, co-working, clubs, studios

• Partnerships that turn the hotel into a local hub

This is particularly relevant in high-growth markets like India, where the travel economy is scaling fast. WTTC reported international visitor spend in India reached ₹3.1 trillion in 2024, above the prior peak, an expanding wallet that will increasingly flow to experiences, not just accommodation.

Rule #4: Supply Is Coming, Differentiation Must Be Designed In, Not Marketed On

Tourism tailwinds are real. India’s Ministry of Tourism reported 9.66 million foreign tourist arrivals in 2024 (provisional), and domestic travel continues to deepen across religious, cultural, and leisure circuits. But new supply is responding, fast.

As competition intensifies, the deciding factor will be whether differentiation is structural (concept, product design, space mix, operating model) or merely cosmetic (a marketing story applied to a standard box).

A 2026-ready feasibility is no longer only about “can it work?”
It must answer: “Can it win, against better-funded competitors, higher guest expectations, and tightening margins?”

Rule #5: Technology Is a Margin Tool, Not a PR Story

AI and automation are entering a more pragmatic phase. The best operators will use technology to:

• Improve pricing precision and channel mix

• Reduce operational waste (energy, procurement, staffing)

• Personalise experiences at scale without adding headcount

The mistake is adopting tech as novelty. The opportunity is deploying it as profit infrastructure.

What This Means for Owners, Developers, and Brands (Key Takeaways)

1. Stop equating growth with keys. Equate growth with profit resilience per key.

2. Design for multiple demand pools and higher volatility not a single “base case.”

3. Build concept-led assets where F&B, wellness, and programming drive premium and loyalty.

4. Use technology to defend margins, not just enhance the guest journey.

5. Underwrite differentiation, not just occupancy.

The hospitality leaders of 2026–2035 will be those who treat hotels as capital assets with experience engines, and who understand that in a normalised demand environment, scale is not a strategy. It is only an amplifier of strategy.